Covenant projection
Forward-run every covenant from your latest TTM position (2026-Q1) to see where compliance breaks first. A transparent modeling aid — grow EBITDA, amortize debt, recompute each ratio.
Base case
EBITDA flat, scheduled amortization
1 projected breach
| Covenant | 2026-Q2 | 2026-Q3 | 2026-Q4 | 2027-Q1 | First breach |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum DSCR | 2.01× | 2.01× | 2.01× | 2.01× | — |
| Maximum Total Leverage | 3.09× | 2.91× | 2.73× | 2.55× | — |
| Minimum Fixed-Charge Coverage | 1.78× | 1.78× | 1.78× | 1.78× | — |
| Minimum Liquidity | $3.9M | $3.9M | $3.9M | $3.9M | — |
| Maximum Annual Capex | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | 2026-Q2 |
Downside
EBITDA −5% per quarter
1 projected breach
| Covenant | 2026-Q2 | 2026-Q3 | 2026-Q4 | 2027-Q1 | First breach |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum DSCR | 1.89× | 1.77× | 1.66× | 1.56× | — |
| Maximum Total Leverage | 3.25× | 3.23× | 3.19× | 3.14× | — |
| Minimum Fixed-Charge Coverage | 1.69× | 1.60× | 1.51× | 1.43× | — |
| Minimum Liquidity | $3.9M | $3.9M | $3.9M | $3.9M | — |
| Maximum Annual Capex | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | 2026-Q2 |
Projections start from Northwind Manufacturing, Inc.’s latest position and assume scheduled principal amortization. They are a planning aid, not a forecast — adjust assumptions to match your operating plan and credit agreement.